KavaStocks
$SPY $QQQ $IWM The Dow closed green today, and so did the average stock in the S&P. If that were all you looked at, you'd have no idea that 47 of the 50 biggest AI names finished red, that AMD lost 7.5% the day before it reports, or that Palantir grew revenue 96% after the bell and fell anyway. The median name in that group now sits about 46% below its high, and that's been the story for months. The index keeps telling everybody things are fine, while a lot of us on these boards watch our accounts say something else.
The country has been living with its own version of that split all year. On paper, it looks strong. The economy grew at a 3.4% rate last quarter, and the S&P was setting records as recently as October. Consumer sentiment hit its lowest reading on record this year anyway, and it isn't hard to see why. Gas is over $4 a gallon, inflation keeps coming in hot, and the war on the news every night is now in its ninth month. Most people don't live in the index.
Tomorrow they get a say. It's the first national vote since 2024, with every House seat, 35 Senate seats and 36 governors on the ballot. Congress was built to be the first check on a president, and for two years this one has mostly waved him through. The result decides whether that changes, and it's the one check that never crosses his desk.
Some of what rides on it isn't on the ballot at all. In October, the President promised no attacks on Iran before the midterms. That promise runs out tomorrow. At a rally in Iowa last night, he said the war is going to be over very soon, and in the same speech that at some point the U.S. is going to have to "give them the hammer." Netanyahu is reportedly pushing him to strike right after the election. U.S. crude fell more than 7% today on reports that both sides are trying to talk their way out of it, which tells you how badly the market wants that to be true. Americans have already died in this war. Whoever decides what happens next will be watching the returns like the rest of us.
Then there's the count itself. Some races won't be called for days, and the closest could end up in court. That happens in a normal year. The harder test comes after. The whole system runs on the people who lose accepting that they lost, and most of them do. Anyone who trades knows the one who won't, with a reason for every tick while the loss keeps growing. The last time enough of the losing side refused, it ended at the Capitol. I'd like to think we only needed to see that once. I'm less sure than I used to be.
Still, the country has voted through worse. In 1918, Americans went to the polls in the middle of a pandemic, some of them in masks, with the armistice six days away. This year, more than 53 million people have already voted, more than voted early in the entire 2022 midterm, and Election Day hasn't even started. After the year we've had, that's a lot of people who still think it's worth showing up.
Vote if you haven't. The war, gas prices and the AI trade will all be here Wednesday, and so will the argument over which result the market wanted.
19
